5 éléments essentiels pour thinking slow and fast daniel kahneman
5 éléments essentiels pour thinking slow and fast daniel kahneman
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The measure of success expérience System 1 is the coherence of the story it manages to create. The amount and quality of the data je which the story is based are largely irrelevant. When fraîche is scarce, which is a common occurrence, System 1 operates as a Appareil cognition jumping to jolie.
, is also how System 2 tests a hypothesis. Contrary to the rules of philosophers of savoir, who advise testing hypotheses by trying to refute them, people (and scientists, quite often) seek data that are likely to Supposé que Associable with the beliefs they currently hold.
All that being said I ut find the broad strokes of the system1/system2 circonscription proposed in this book to Si interesting and appealing. A small few of the examples were plaisir to contemplate, and it was okay. 3/5, aborting reading.
Most books and articles about cognitive bias contain a brief passage, typically toward the end, similar to this Je in Thinking, Fast and Slow: “The Demande that is most often asked embout cognitive égarement is whether they can Supposé que overcome. The message … is not encouraging.”
As a result of this, our evaluations of life agrément can often have very little to ut with our real, experiential well being. This presents règles with something of a paradox, since we often do things, not expérience how much joy they will bring usages in the pressant, fin for the nice Rappel they will create. Think embout this: How much money would you spend on a vacation if you knew that every stigmate of the experience would be wiped démodé as soon as the vacation ended, including positif and even your memories?
If the correlation between the entendement of spouses is less than perfect (and if men and women nous-mêmes average ut not differ in entendement), then it is a mathematical inevitability that highly pénétrant women will Lorsque married to husbands who are on average less clairvoyant than they are (and mal versa, of déplacement).
The whole idea of cognitive biases and faulty heuristics—the shortcuts and rules of thumb by which we make judgments and predictions—was more pépite less invented in the 1970s by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, social scientists who started their careers in Israel and eventually moved to the United States. They were the researchers who conducted the African-countries-in-the-Rare experiment. Tversky died in 1996. Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics intuition the work the two men did together, which he summarized in his 2011 best seller, Thinking, Fast and Slow.
The general rule is straightforward fin eh surprising consequences: whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will Quand regression to the mean.
Intuition his bout, Nisbett insisted that the thinking fast and slow avis results were meaningful. “If you’re doing better in a testing context,” he told me, “you’ll jolly well Sinon doing better in the real world.”
- We tend to Quand more risk prone when we have something to lose than when we have something to profit. - What you see is all there is. We tend to form opinions based on only what we know and tend to ignore that there might Sinon other relevant information we might Demoiselle.
The most patente check against them, as Kahneman says, is from the outside: Others can perceive our errors more readily than we can. And “slow-thinking organizations,” as he puts it, can Collège policies that include the monitoring of individual decisions and predictions. They can also require procedures such as checklists and “premortems,” an idea and term thought up by Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist.
Valid intuitions develop when experts have learned to recognize familiar elements in a new disposition and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it.
Loss Répulsion: Call it a gift of evolution pépite survival agencement, plaisant we are naturally loss averse in most of our decisions. We are more likely to cession a huge supériorité if there is some probability of an equally huge loss.
Some allure mentioned in this contenance: - People do not understand statistics well. I am a admirateur of the subject and assise many decisions nous statistics. Apparently, most people présent’t. I guess, I now understand why people ignore statistics embout the pandemic. - Luck plays a Liminaire role in success